Negative gearing now applies to new builds only, and investor borrowing capacity has already dropped by about 20%. This watchlist ranks the 30 SA2 markets where the squeeze bites hardest with the data as of May 2026, based on the immediate post-budget market read.
Australia recorded 62,299 townhouse approvals across 315 SA3s in the 24 months to March 2026. Whittlesea-Wallan tops the national table; Bankstown's rise in Sydney's south-west is the more telling story, and the reason is worth a paragraph.
Analysis of 75 Greater Melbourne sub-$1M unit markets identifies which suburbs meet strict buyer's-market conditions of 4+ months inventory and rising stock levels. The full Top 10 report is available for download.
Greater Geelong is holding while Surf Coast corrects. Same headline, two markets, two very different buyer windows. Here's where the split actually is.
From 1 July 2027: negative gearing restricted, 50% CGT discount replaced with indexation + 30% floor. Existing positions safe. It's a timing shift, not abolition. The real overreach is the CGT scope across business equity. Capital flows to the family home — the last untaxed asset.
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